Win Probability is a percentage field on each deal that signifies how likely that deal is to be won. This allows you and your sales team to prioritize deals so you can focus your time and efforts on those that matter most to your business.
How Win Probability works
Each deal with an Open status will display the Win Probability percentage in the "Deal Info" box:
Deals with a Won or Lost status will not have a Win Probability calculation in the "Win Probability" field. Instead, this field will say Not yet calculated.
This percentage is calculated from factors that correlate with deals marked as Won in a pipeline. Each set of factors is specific and unique to each pipeline; each pipeline will have its own set of factors. These factors can range anywhere from the number of tasks created to whether or not a deal entered a specific stage in your pipeline to a contact's email domain.
For our system to accurately calculate the Win Probability value for an open deal, you must already have the following data requirements in place:
- Correctly mark closed deals as Won or Lost
- Have at least 100-150 deals in a pipeline marked as Won and some deals marked as Lost
- Have a healthy distribution of Won and Lost deals
If you do not have 100-150 deals correctly marked as Won in a pipeline, you will see a Not yet calculated message instead of a percentage.
In addition, updating several old deals to Won or Lost at once will not help calculate accurate Win Probability values. These values are based on when a deal was opened and marked as either Won or Lost. Closing several past deals at once will create inaccurate Win Probability data.
If the Win Probability value for a deal is between 6% and 94%, we'll display the exact value in the "Deal Info" box.
A Win Probability value less than or equal to 5% will be displayed as Less than 5%.
A Win Probability value greater than or equal to 95% will be displayed as Greater than 95%.
In addition, the more deals marked as Won or Lost in your pipeline, the more data we have to work with to accurately calculate the Win Probability value for each deal.
The model updates weekly on Saturdays.
Things to note:
- Deals marked as Won or Lost will no longer impact Win Probability calculations for that pipeline and will have a Win Probability value of Not yet calculated
- Deals marked as Won or Lost and then re-opened will no longer inform Win Probability calculations for that pipeline. However, they can still display a Win Probability value
- Deals moved to a different pipeline are unusable from a data collection standpoint. You can move a deal to any pipeline you like, which may display a Win Probability value based on the new pipeline's criteria. However, this value may be inaccurate, and the system will no longer learn anything from what happens inside this deal
- It is recommended to create a new deal instead of re-opening deals marked as Won or Lost. A closed deal that is re-opened can display a Win Probability value. However, it will no longer inform Win Probability calculations
How to access Win Probability settings
Each pipeline in your account will have Win Probability configuration settings. To access the Win Probability settings for your pipeline(s), click Deals > Deal Settings on the left menu. The "Win Probability" box will be displayed toward the bottom of the page.
Each tab in this box is a pipeline in your account, and they will have their configuration settings. These settings will calculate the Win Probability for deals within individual pipelines.
Create segments using Win Probability values
Win Probability can be used in segment conditions. You can use this to locate deals with a specific Win Probability value or whose Win Probability falls within a particular range.
From the segment builder, go to Deal Details > Has deal with Win Probability, and use the dropdowns to define your desired segment.
You can segment by the following operators:
- Is
- Is not
- Greater than
- Greater than or equal to
- Less than
- Less than or equal to
This allows you to create targeted segments based on particular parameters of Win Probability.
Next steps
Learn how to use Lead Scoring with Win Probability.