Win Probability is a percentage field on each deal that signifies how likely that deal is to be won. This allows you and your sales team to prioritize deals so you can focus your time and efforts on those that matter most to your business.
How Win Probability works
Each deal with an Open status will display the Win Probability percentage in the "Deal Info" box:
Deals with a Won or Lost status will not have a Win Probability calculation in the "Win Probability" field. Instead, this field will say Not yet calculated.
This percentage is calculated from factors that correlate with deals marked as Won in a pipeline. Each set of factors is specific and unique to each pipeline; each pipeline will have its own set of factors. These factors can range anywhere from the number of tasks created to whether or not a deal entered a specific stage in your pipeline to a contact's email domain.
For our system to accurately calculate the Win Probability value for an open deal, you must already have the following data requirements in place:
- Correctly mark closed deals as Won or Lost
- Have at least 100-150 deals in a pipeline marked as Won and some deals marked as Lost
- Have a healthy distribution of Won and Lost deals
If you do not have 100-150 deals correctly marked as Won in a pipeline, you will see a Not yet calculated message instead of a percentage.
In addition, updating several old deals to Won or Lost at once will not help calculate accurate Win Probability values. These values are based on when a deal was opened and marked as either Won or Lost. Closing several past deals at once will create inaccurate Win Probability data.
If the Win Probability value for a deal is between 6% and 94%, we'll display the exact value in the "Deal Info" box.
A Win Probability value less than or equal to 5% will be displayed as Less than 5%.
A Win Probability value greater than or equal to 95% will be displayed as Greater than 95%.
In addition, the more deals marked as Won or Lost in your pipeline, the more data we have to work with to accurately calculate the Win Probability value for each deal.
The model updates weekly on Saturdays.
Things to note:
- Deals marked as Won or Lost will no longer impact Win Probability calculations for that pipeline and will have a Win Probability value of Not yet calculated
- Deals marked as Won or Lost and then re-opened will no longer inform Win Probability calculations for that pipeline. However, they can still display a Win Probability value
- Deals moved to a different pipeline are unusable from a data collection standpoint. You can move a deal to any pipeline you like, which may display a Win Probability value based on the new pipeline's criteria. However, this value may be inaccurate, and the system will no longer learn anything from what happens inside this deal
- It is recommended to create a new deal instead of re-opening deals marked as Won or Lost. A closed deal that is re-opened can display a Win Probability value. However, it will no longer inform Win Probability calculations
How to access Win Probability settings
Each pipeline in your account will have Win Probability configuration settings. By default, these settings will be turned on. You can make any minor adjustments to these settings as you see fit. However, it's important to note that any changes you make to these settings will impact Win Probability calculations.
To access the Win Probability settings for your pipeline(s), click Deals > Deal Settings on the left menu.
The "Win Probability" box will be displayed toward the bottom of the page.
Each tab in this box is a pipeline in your account, and they will have their configuration settings. Again, these configuration options calculate the Win Probability value for deals in individual pipelines.
Data Start Date: Win Probability Settings
The "Data Start Date" is the first configuration setting listed for each pipeline. This is the date we start collecting deal-specific data from your account.
The information collected from that date forward calculates Win Probability values for deals in that specific pipeline. Any deal data from before this date will not be used in these calculations.
The default value for this field is the date the pipeline was created. However, you can change this date by clicking into the date field and selecting a new date in the calendar:
Click "Reset" to reset the date to your pipeline's creation date.
The calendar will only allow you to go back as early as the pipeline was created.
Note: After changing the "Data Start Date," there may be up to a 30-minute delay before new calculations are made.
Sales Cycle Length: Win Probability Settings
The Sales Cycle length is the longest time it takes for you and your team to mark deals as Won or Lost. We use this information to understand your sales cycle better, so we can best calculate accurate Win Probability values for your deals.
The default amount of time is set to 20 days. However, you can change this to any amount of time that better fits your sales cycle.
To update the amount of time, type in a new number and select Days, Weeks, Months, or Years from the dropdown:
If you're unsure what to put here, consult your sales team and give an honest estimate for the longest time it takes to mark a deal as Won or Lost.
You may lose valuable data if the Sales Cycle Length is too short.
Open deals that last longer than the sales cycle value will be considered Lost when used in Win Probability calculations, even if they aren't marked as Lost in the CRM.
These deals will NOT be marked as Lost by this feature.
Note: After updating the Sales Cycle length, there may be a 30-minute delay before new calculations are made.
Win Probability Factors: Win Probability Settings
The Win Probability Factors is a curated list of items used to calculate Win Probability for deals in a specific pipeline. While there are over 100 factors used to calculate this percentage, only 20 of the most relevant ones are shown—these factors affect Win Probability calculations the most.
Note: Win Probability Factors may vary from pipeline to pipeline. In addition, these factors may change over time as the feature learns more about your sales processes.
By default, these factors are turned On. However, if you know that the factor is irrelevant to your business, you can quickly turn it Off. To do so, click the On toggle to change it to Off.
Note: Once a factor is turned off, it will not be used to calculate the Win Probability for deals in that pipeline. In addition, there may be up to an hour delay before that condition is used in calculations.
Create segments using Win Probability values
Win Probability can be used in segment conditions. You can use this to locate deals with a specific Win Probability value or whose Win Probability falls within a particular range.
From the segment builder, go to Deal Details > Has deal with Win Probability, and use the dropdowns to define your desired segment.
You can segment by the following operators:
- Is
- Is not
- Greater than
- Greater than or equal to
- Less than
- Less than or equal to
This allows you to create targeted segments based on particular parameters of Win Probability.
Next steps
Learn how to use Lead Scoring with Win Probability.