Win Probability: Predicting which deals are most likely to win

Win Probability is available on the following plans:

  • Professional
  • Enterprise

Win Probability is a simple percentage field on each deal that signifies how likely that deal is to be won. This allows you and your sales team to prioritize deals so you can focus your time and efforts on those that matter most to your business.

In this article, we’ll cover:

How Win Probability works
How to access Win Probability settings
ata Start Date - Win Probability Configuration Settings
verage Sales Cycle - Win Probability Configuration Settings
Win Probability Factors - Win Probability Configuration Settings

Create segments using Win Probability values

How Win Probability works

Each individual deal with an "Open" status will display the Win Probability percentage in the "Deal Info" box:

Note: Deals with a "Won" or "Lost" status will not have a Win Probability calculation in the "Win Probability" field. Instead, this field will say "Not yet calculated."

This percentage is calculated from factors that correlate with deals marked as "Won" in a pipeline. Each set of factors is specific and unique to each pipeline; each pipeline will have its own set of factors. These factors can range anywhere from the number of tasks created, to whether or not a deal entered a specific stage in your pipeline, to a contact's email domain.

In order for our system to accurately calculate the Win Probability value for an open deal, you must already have the following data requirements in place:

If you do not have 100-150 deals correctly marked as "Won" in a pipeline, you will see a "Not yet calculated" message instead of a percentage value for Win Probability.

In addition, updating several old deals to "Won" or "Lost" at once will not help calculate accurate Win Probability values. These values are based on when a deal was opened, and then when it was marked as either "Won" or "Lost." Closing several past deals at once will create inaccurate Win Probability data.

If the Win Probability value for a deal is between 6% and 94%, we'll display the exact value in the "Deal Info" box.

A Win Probability value that is less than or equal to 5% will be displayed as "Less than 5%."

A Win Probability value that is greater than or equal to 95% will be displayed as "Greater than 95%."

In addition, the more deals marked as "Won" or "Lost" in your pipeline, the more data we have to work with to accurately calculate the Win Probability value for each deal.

These values are calculated every six (6) hours, and immediately after you update a Win Probability setting.

Things to note: 

  • Deals marked as "Won" or "Lost" will no longer impact Win Probability calculations for that pipeline and will have a Win Probability value of "Not yet calculated." 
  • Deals that are marked as "Won" or "Lost" and then re-opened will no longer inform Win Probability calculations for that pipeline. However, they can still display a Win Probability value.
  • Deals that are moved to a different pipeline renders that deal unusable from a data collection standpoint. You can move a deal to any pipeline you like, and it may display a Win Probability value based on the new pipeline's criteria. However, this value may be inaccurate and the system will no longer learn anything from what happens inside this deal.
  • It is recommended to create a new deal instead of re-opening deals marked as "Won" or "Lost." A closed deal that is re-opened can display a Win Probability value, however, it will no longer inform Win Probability calculations.

How to access Win Probability settings

Each pipeline in your account will have its own Win Probability configuration settings. By default, these settings will be turned on. You can make any minor adjustments to these settings as you see fit. However, it's important to note that any changes you make to these settings will impact Win Probability calculations.

To access the Win Probability settings for your pipeline(s):

1. Click “Settings” (indicated by a gear icon) located on the lower left of your screen.

2. A sub-navigation menu will open on the lefthand side of the screen. Click the “Deals” option.

The "Win Probability" box will be displayed toward the bottom of the Settings > Deals page:

Each tab in this box is a pipeline in your account and they will have their own configuration settings. Again, these configuration options are used to calculate the Win Probability value for deals in individual pipelines.

Data Start Date: Win Probability Settings

The "Data Start Date" is the first configuration setting listed for each pipeline. This is the date we start collecting deal-specific data from your account

The information collected from that date forward is used to calculate Win Probability values for deals in that specific pipeline. Any deals data from before this date will not be used in these calculations.

The default value for this field is the date the pipeline was created. However, you can change this date by clicking into the date field, and selecting a new date in the calendar:

To reset the date to the date your pipeline was created, click "Reset to default."

The calendar will only allow you to go back as early as the pipeline was created.

Note: After changing the Data Start Date, there may be up to a 30 minute delay before new calculations are made.

Sales Cycle Length: Win Probability Settings

The Sales Cycle length is the longest amount of time it takes for you and your team to mark deals as "Won" or "Lost." We use this information to better understand your sales cycle, by pipeline, so we can best calculate accurate Win Probability values for your deals.

The default amount of time is set to 20 days. However, you can change this to any amount of time that better fits your sales cycle. 

To update the amount of time, type in a new number, and select Days, Weeks, Months, or Years from the dropdown:

If you're not sure what to put here, consult with your sales team and give an honest estimate for the longest amount of time it takes to mark a deal as "Won" or "Lost." 

You may lose valuable data if the Sales Cycle Length is too short.

Open deals that last longer than the sales cycle value will be considered "Lost" when used in Win Probability calculations, even if they aren't marked as "Lost" in the CRM.

These deals will NOT be marked as "Lost" by this feature.

Note: After updating the Sales Cycle length, there may be a 30-minute delay before new calculations are made.

Win Probability Factors: Win Probability Settings

The Win Probability Factors is a curated list of items used to calculate Win Probability for deals in a specific pipeline. While there are over 100 factors used to calculate this percentage, only 20 of the most relevant ones are shown—these are the factors that affect Win Probability calculations the most. 

Note: Win Probability Factors may vary from pipeline to pipeline. In addition, these factors may change over time as the feature learns more about your sales processes. 

By default, these factors are turned "On." However, if you know that the factor is not relevant to your business, you can easily turn it "Off."  To do so, click the "On" toggle to change it to "Off."

Note: Once a factor is turned off, it will not be used to calculate the Win Probability for deals in that pipeline. In addition, there may be up to an hour delay before that condition is used in calculations.

Create segments using Win Probability values

Win Probability can be used in segment conditions. You can use this to locate deals that have a specific Win Probability value, or whose Win Probability falls within a specific range.

From the segment builder, go to Deals > Win Probability, and use the dropdowns to define your desired segment.

You can segment by the following operators:

  • Is
  • Is not
  • Greater than
  • Greater than or equal to
  • Less than
  • Less than or equal to

This allows you to create targeted segments based on very specific parameters of Win Probability.

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